Nigel Farage’s resignation as MP for Clacton is, on one level, exactly the sort of political theatre he has always understood better than almost anyone else in British politics.

Faced with mounting questions about his financial arrangements and parliamentary declarations, he has chosen not to wait for process, procedure or punishment, but to turn the whole thing into a by-election: “the people versus the establishment”, with himself once again cast as tribune, victim and ringmaster.

There is real anger in it, certainly – particularly about media intrusions into his family life. But there was also plenty of self-pity in his statement too.

Farage must have known this scrutiny was coming. A politician who has spent decades presenting himself as the scourge of cosy elites cannot be surprised when questions about gifts, donors and support become political weapons. His answer is classic Farage: do not dwell on the detail, widen the playing field. Make it about Clacton, Reform, broken Britain, the media, the old parties and the political establishment targeting him as a challenge to cushy status quo.

He will probably win. Clacton was already fertile ground for Reform, and Farage won it in 2024 with a comfortable majority. But that may be precisely the point. After talking up Reform prospects in places like Makerfield and Gorton & Denton only to fall short, this gives him a controlled arena in which to prove that the movement can still win elections — and, just as importantly, that he can still win elections. It is a referendum not only on the standards row, but on Farage’s continuing claim to be Reform’s indispensable asset.

The intriguing question is what everyone else does. The role of Restore will be worth watching. How much will they eat into the Farage vote. So too will the behaviour of the other political parties. Do Labour, the Liberal Democrats and Greens run campaigns at all.  Never mind the risk of splitting the anti-Farage vote if they do contest it.  Will they take the view that since Farage is paying for the privilege that this is a vanity project they can sit out.

The Conservatives meanwhile are the most likely challengers but will they be surreptitiously on the phone to their rivals? That would be an extraordinary pact, formal or otherwise.  But it would be far from unique.  Labour and Lib Dems sat-out the Haltemprice and Howden by-election called by grandee Sir David Davis MP nearly 20 years ago.

While in the short term it might have improved their media prospects it ended any chance of a Lib Dem challenge in that seat. Time will tell. If they step aside altogether, accuse Farage of a political stunt, they could yet leave him campaigning against the likes of Monster Raving Loonies and Count Binface.

By-elections often expose the difference between party pride and tactical reality – especially these days when people all too often vote against what they dislike rather than for what they support.

The Clacton by-election looks like a safe bet for Farage come what may, and one that he will hope will put him back on the front pages for what he believes are the right reasons. It will also suck away some of the positive publicity Labour will be hoping for with the Burnham coronation as leader and Prime Minister.

We don’t yet know when the by-election will be but one thing we can be sure of, this is not going to be a quiet summer in Westminster. But then, given the past decade, did anyone seriously think it would be?